A lecturer at the Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran (Unpad) Dwi Agustian, said that the current decline in Covid-19 cases may not be due to vaccination, but a combination with the second wave. So far, the Covid-19 vaccination coverage in Indonesia has not reached 70 percent as the threshold for the theory of community immunity.
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“So I have an untested hypothesis that this might be generated by a large population of infected people and then have the resistance of the Delta variant,” he said during the One Hour Science Talk which was held online by the Board of Professors of Padjadjaran University, Saturday afternoon, December 11, 2021.
The second wave of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia was marked by a spike in daily cases of 56,757 people on July 15, 2021. Prior to that spike, Dwi said, the Covid-19 vaccination began in January and the finding of the Delta variant on May 3 before Eid al-Fitr.
From the information he obtained, the Covid-19 cases in July-August 2021 were caused by viruses that did not vary. “All are dominated by the Delta variant,” said the lecturer with spatial epidemiology expertise. The trend of new daily cases then greatly reduced as of 16 November.
According to Dwi, Indonesia cannot intercept the entry of the Delta variant at the airport with a 3-day quarantine rule for people arriving from abroad. “So we missed the Delta variant,” said the public health expert. In addition, there are problems with the health system so that many Covid-19 cases go unreported.
The challenge now is with the Omicron variant. So far, Dwi said, there have been no reported findings in Indonesia from the results of the examination of existing samples. While the new variant of Covid-19 has been found in Singapore. “Can the Indonesian government guard the borders of this new variant,” he said.
Kusnandi Rusmil, Unpad Professor of Pediatrics, who was involved in the discussion, said that several people asked why there was no spike in the third case. “Is it because of herd immunity or most of us have been infected without symptoms so we have immunity,” he said. To find the answer, a research proposal appeared among the Unpad academic community.
Dwi Agustian said that the number of Unpad students was around 30-40 thousand people and spread across various regions. From the population sample, it can be seen the condition of the body’s immunity to Covid-19 through taking blood for examination. “That’s data to answer questions,” said the Head of the Unpad Covid-19 Task Force.
